ALL CHARTS/ GLASSNODE DAILY DATA
Adjusted LTH.
Realized prices.
Compare Bitcoin’s price with the estimated on-chain cost of coins aged 150 days–4 years and 150 days–7 years. Older coins are excluded from each calculation.
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GLASSNODE · ADJUSTED LTH · ESTIMATED BOUNDARIES · THROUGH —
AGE-FILTERED ESTIMATES · Coins aged 150d–4Y and 150d–7Y. The 150-day and 4-year cuts fall inside reported age bands and are modeled. Shading shows split-assumption sensitivity, not a confidence interval.
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/ 02 HOW IT IS CALCULATED
Realized cap divided by selected supply.
Adjusted here means excluding coins older than the chosen age limit. LTH starts at 150 days in this calculation. Both lines sum realized cap and BTC supply separately over ages [150d, 4Y) or [150d, 7Y), then divide those sums. This is algebraically equivalent to subtracting older coins from the ≥150d totals; age-band prices are never averaged. Inputs are same-day Glassnode BTC UTXO HODL Waves, Realized Cap HODL Waves, aggregate realized cap and circulating supply. Whole reported bands contribute their measured totals. The 150d cut splits 3m–6m; 4Y splits 3y–5y; 7Y follows the 5y–7y band boundary. Within split bands, maximum-entropy vintage weights fit the observed band mean cost, using past daily closes and historical <24h supply as a prior. Model age conventions use 30-day months and 365-day years (4Y = 1,460d; 7Y = 2,555d). If price support cannot match the band mean, the prior shares its observed mean cost. If historical vintage support is incomplete, a uniform within-band split is used and marked as a band assumption; missing same-day inputs remain gaps. Shading compares the vintage-prior fit, a uniform-prior cost fit and a uniform band split when both boundary fits are available. It is assumption sensitivity, not a confidence interval or a guarantee that the true value lies inside. Current provider revisions are used, not point-in-time snapshots. No entity-adjusted supply or cohort MVRV is mixed into this calculation. These lines estimate average on-chain cost, not verified purchase prices or guaranteed support levels.
Data is aligned by completed UTC day. Missing observations remain visible as gaps. Exports use the saved entrance recording and omit crosshairs and inspection values.