TRUE MARKET MEAN◎
—Investor cap ÷ active supply
COST BASIS / SYNTHETIC ON-CHAIN MODEL
True market mean.
Measured on-chain inputs come first. Where a protocol model supplies a missing term, its estimate and uncertainty are shown explicitly.
BTC / USD — TRUE MARKET MEAN
DAILY COMPONENTS · GLASSNODE · THROUGH —
BTC price True market mean
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BTC PRICE↗
—Same-day USD close
INVESTOR CAP◒
—Realized cap less producer cap
ACTIVE SUPPLY✳
—Liveliness × circulating supply
/ 02 THE COMPONENTS
Every term
has a source.
The on-chain calculation uses values observed on the same UTC day. Missing dates are left out.
- Realized cap
- —
- Producer cap
- —
- Liveliness
- —
- Circulating supply
- —
- USD close
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/ 03 HOW IT'S BUILT
A cost basis for
active capital.
Each component uses a measured series when possible. A reconstructed component is named, graded, and tested for sensitivity.
SYNTHETIC TRUE MARKET MEAN(Realized Cap − Producer Cap) ÷ (Liveliness × Circulating Supply)
Remove producer value
Realized cap values coins at their last movement. The producer adjustment uses measured thermocap or issued units when available, or a labeled protocol issuance model.
Weight by coin age
Liveliness is cumulative coin days destroyed divided by cumulative coin days created. Multiplying it by circulating supply estimates the economically active portion.
Keep terms distinct
Binance daily close can value issuance when Glassnode price is missing. Binance candles cannot supply realized cap or coin age, so those terms still need on-chain evidence.
The on-chain chart needs realized cap, a producer cap adjustment, liveliness, circulating supply, and price observations.